ThePhillySportsBlog

I’ve been a Philadelphia Phillies fan my entire life (nearly 58 years) and I don’t understand what the fans of this team were expecting this offseason.

Everyone is upset that the team is “running it back” with the same team as last year.  Why?

The Phillies won 95 games in 2024 and 96 games in 2025.  They also won the NL East both seasons.  One would think that you would want to keep a team with that kind of success together. 

The problem is that the team has underachieved in the playoffs the last two years, losing in the NLDS.  Obviously, that isn’t good enough.  But it’s also not a reason for wholesale changes.  This isn’t fantasy baseball, people.

The Phillies are probably never going to undergo a full-scale rebuild while John Middleton owns the team.  He wants to win and is willing to spend the money to assemble a top-notch roster.  The Phillies have been in the top 5 in payroll the last few years and are projected to be #4 in 2026 at $266 million, per Fangraphs.  The problem for everyone is that the Dodgers are #1 at a projected $413 million.

Let’s just forget the Dodgers.  They are in a league of their own and that will never change regarding payroll, unless MLB institutes a salary cap (Note: the players association is never going to accept a salary cap in baseball).  That doesn’t mean the Phillies aren’t trying.  They’re going to spend almost $50 million in luxury taxes in 2026.  Middleton really is putting his money where his mouth is.  The Phillies spend enough money. 

The problem recently has been that the hitters have gone cold in the playoffs, so the fans thought there needed to be changes this offseason.  But to think there were going to be major changes to this roster was just unrealistic.

The Phillies have several veterans on big-money, long-term contracts, led by Zack Wheeler’s $42 million.  They actually have 11 players making at least $10 million, including $18 million for Taijuan Walker.  They’re also paying Nick Castellanos $20 million to NOT play for them this season.  So this isn’t about them being cheap.

You can fault President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski for the players he signed, but really, he’s assembled a team capable of winning a World Series. 

Giving Kyle Schwarber whatever it took to keep him on the Phillies was a no-brainer.  Not only is Schwarber the best hitter on the team, but he is also the unquestioned leader in the clubhouse.  Bryce Harper might be a bigger name and Trea Turner might have just won a batting title, but Schwarber is the straw that stirs the Phillies drink.  Plus, Schwarber actually seems to be getting better as a hitter.  He absolutely crushes left-handed pitching now.

Some complained about bringing back JT Realmuto, but there really was no other option.  I get that Realmuto is a declining offensive player, but he is still an elite catcher and the pitching staff absolutely loves him.  When someone of the stature of Wheeler says that he never shakes off Realmuto, that tells you all you need to know about how much Realmuto means to this pitching staff.

Castellanos had to go after his insubordination and declining play.  Done.  Of course, I would have liked a better offensive replacement than Adolis Garcia, but since Harper apparently wasn’t willing to back into the OF, he was the best option.  The good news is that since 2021, his first full season in the majors, Garcia leads all RFs in defensive runs saved above average at 36 (Castellanos was ranked last at -51).

Brandon Marsh is back in LF, but he’s only the strong side of a platoon with Otto Kemp.  Considering that Marsh hit .300 with an .838 OPS (On-base + slugging %) against right-handers I’m fine with this arrangement.  Sorry, but signing Kyle Tucker was a pipe-dream.

The biggest change on the entire roster is the Phillies starting rookie Justin Crawford in CF.  Is this a risk?  Absolutely.  But Crawford has absolutely dominated at every level in the minors.  He stole 145 bases in 325 minor league games and has hit at least .310 with an .800 OPS each season.  He won’t hit .334 like he did in AAA last season, but he’s going to be just fine as the #9 hitter in this lineup.  You need cheap players like this on the roster.  It’s just the economics of the game.

The infield was already set with Harper, Bryson Stott , Turner and Alec Bohm in his last season before he becomes a free-agent.  Obviously, the fans were disappointed that Bo Bichette turned down the Phillies offer.  But they can’t be disappointed that the team tried to sign him.  That would have meant trading Bohm for whatever they could get, which would have been fine with everyone.  But not getting Bichette led them back to signing Realmuto, so the pitchers are happier.

Speaking of pitching, the Phillies starting rotation will again be one of the best in baseball.  The wildcard is Wheeler.  Will he be the same Top-3 pitcher in baseball?  We won’t know until he gets back on the mound.  They don’t expect him back in the rotation until possibly May.  Until then, Christopher Sanchez is the ace.

Combine Sanchez with Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Nola and that’s a damn good start for any rotation.  The problem is that Walker will need to start until Wheeler comes back.  And then there is Andrew Painter. 

Painter was a top prospect in MLB before he lost two seasons to Tommy John surgery.  Then last season wasn’t what anyone expected, when he finally got back on the mound.  The historical evidence tells you that command is the last thing to come back for pitchers after TJS.  Let’s hope that’s the case with Painter.

That means there just wasn’t a spot in the rotation for Ranger Suarez.  Sorry Phillies fans.  I loved Ranger too, but unless you’re the Dodgers you can’t keep everyone.

The bullpen is another great example of how the Phillies aren’t just running it back. 

Last season’s trade deadline acquisition of closer Jhoan Duran changed the entire complexion of the bullpen and he returns as the closer in 2026.  They subtracted Matt Strahm, but they’ll get Jose Alvarado back from his PED suspension.  Let’s just assume that’s a wash.  The big bullpen move was signing Brad Keller for 2 years and $22 million.  That’s the biggest multi-year contract they’ve given a reliever since 2012 when they signed Jonathan Papelbon.  Sorry, didn’t mean to bring up bad memories.

Combining lefty Tanner Banks and righty Orion Kerkering with Keller and Alvarado should provide a bridge to an established closer that this team hasn’t had in years.  That, along with the other veteran signings and minor leaguers should round out an improved bullpen.  Spring training will sort that out.

All of this is a very long-winded way of saying that the Phillies did actually improve the team this past offseason.  Yes, the core is another year older, but none of the veterans have shown signs of decline, except Realmuto.

Just because the Phillies didn’t sign any of the big-name free agents like Bichette or Tucker, doesn’t mean it wasn’t a productive offseason.  They’ll still be in the mix to win the NL East with the Mets and Braves and they still have a good chance of finally breaking through in the playoffs. 

Let’s just take a breath and see how things develop in Spring Training.