The Philadelphia Phillies have been going backwards in the last few seasons. Yes, they won 95 games in 2024 and 96 games in 2025, but all anyone really cares about is the fact that the team isn’t producing in the playoffs.
Since the Phillies lost the World Series in 2022, they haven’t been able to get back there. Yes, they have made the playoffs each year, but with a Top 5 payroll every season, more is expected from this team. Will this be the year they finally win a World Series for the first time since 2008? Let’s take a look.
Here is the projected lineup:
- SS Trea Turner, RHB
- 1B Bryce Harper, LHB
- DH Kyle Schwarber, LHB
- 3B Alec Bohm, RHB
- LF Brandon Marsh, LHB or Otto Kemp, RHB
- RF Adolis Garcia, RHB
- 2B Bryson Stott, LHB or Edmundo Sosa, RHB
- C J.T. Realmuto, RHB
- CF Justin Crawford, LHB
Phillies manager Rob Thomson likes to alternate left-handed and right-handed batters in his lineup as much as possible. The exceptions are Harper and Schwarber who mash lefties as well as righties. You’ll also notice that the Phillies will be employing platoons at both 2B and LF this season. That might alter the lineup a bit, but this is basically what we’re going to get this season.
Some people complained about Turner’s stats last season, but those people are wrong. Turner did exactly what the Phillies pay him to do. He got on base, got some steals and scored a bunch of runs. As a matter of fact, Turner won the batting title with a .304 average and finished fifth in the NL MVP race. Oh, and he also improved his defense at SS. I’ll take more of that this season please.
Harper complained about the batters behind him last season to deflect blame for his “not elite” season. He then said he couldn’t wait to have Aaron Judge hitting behind him in the WBC. Funny thing though. Harper actually saw LESS strikes in the WBC with Judge hitting behind him than he saw during last season with the Phillies. To his credit, Harper said that he needs to do a better job of laying off pitches outside the zone and taking more walks if necessary this season. Good, Bryce. You’re learning.
Schwarber was a beast last season, and the Phillies rewarded him with a new contract. As the DH, Schwarber should be able to replicate that great season a few more times, starting this season. Schwarber needs to hit 50+ HRs and drive in 120+ runs again. His mere presence makes everyone around him better, but he definitely needs to produce. I have no doubt he’ll do just that.
Bohm is the whipping boy of the fans recently because he doesn’t hit HRs. But what he does do is make contact, not strike out and drive in runs. In a lineup with too many high-strikeout guys, that’s valuable. Yes, Bohm was not good in 2025, but in 2024 he was second in the NL in doubles and had 97 RBIs. Plus, Bohm has been raking this spring. He’s set to be a free agent, and countless players have career years I their walk year. Let’s hope that happens with Bohm.
The LF platoon with Marsh and Kemp isn’t great, but it should be good enough. Teams simply don’t have all-stars at every position. Plus, Marsh is better than people give him credit for, considering that he hit .300 with a .838 OPS (On-base + slugging %) against right-handers last season.
Adolis Garcia is better than Nick Castellanos, even if he doesn’t come close to his 2023 season when he hit 39 HRs, scored 108 runs and had 107 RBIs. The problem is that he hit only 19 HRs with a .665 OPS last season. Still, he’s a million times better in the field than Castellanos and he won’t be a clubhouse cancer. That alone makes this an upgrade.
It won’t be a straight platoon at 2B, if Stott can prove that the adjustments he made in the second half of last season, stick this season. Here is what Stott did last season.
2025 1st half: .234 avg., .636 OPS, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 59:31 K:BB
2025 2nd half: .294 avg., .855 OPS, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 32:23 K:BB
If Stott can replicate that second half, it would allow Sosa to be the super utility guy on the team.
Realmuto is clearly on the downside of his career at the plate, but his value to this team is actually more about what he does behind the plate. The pitchers love Realmuto and trust him to guide them through the game. Even Zack Wheeler says that he doesn’t shake off Realmuto during a game. That’s how much they trust the work that Realmuto does in preparing for each game.
Crawford dominated at every level in the minors. He stole 145 bases in 325 minor league games and has hit at least .310 with a .800 OPS each season. He isn’t going to hit .334 like he did at AAA last season, but he’ll be just fine in the #9 hole in the lineup. He is also expected to provide good CF defense.
The Phillies will have the best starting rotation in MLB this season. You read it here first.
Yes, I know Zack Wheeler is coming off major offseason surgery, but he’s way ahead of schedule after thoracic outlet surgery and is only going to miss about a month of the season. This wasn’t an arm or shoulder injury.
So, considering the Phillies will get one of the Top 5 pitchers in all of baseball back in April, here is what their starting rotation will look like to start the season.
LHP Christopher Sanchez
RHP Aaron Nola
LHP Jesus Luzardo
RHP Taijuan Walker
RHP Andrew Painter
Sanchez is the second best LHP pitcher in MLB, behind Tarik Skubal, who is the best pitcher in MLB. He finished second for the NL Cy Young Award last season and the Phillies rewarded him with a 6-year, $107 million deal that starts in 2027. He threw a career-high 202 innings, with a career-best 202 strikeouts in 2025 thanks to one of the best changeups in the game. Sanchez is a star player on the rise and he’ll be on the mound for Opening Day.
If you’re wondering why Nola is the No. 2 starter after the horrible season he had in 2025, there are two reasons. First, he’s right-handed and it makes sense to place him between two hard-throwing lefties in the rotation. Second, it’s an even numbered year. That matters with Nola. Look at his ERAs in the last few seasons.
2018 2.37
2019 3.87
2020 3.28
2021 4.63
2022 3.25
2023 4.46
2024 3.57
2025 6.01
While some might disregard that trend and point out that Nola might be losing the battle to Father Time, they should look at how he’s been pitching this spring. Nola looked absolutely dominant in the WBC for Italy, where he only allowed one run over two starts. His 9 innings pitched led the WBC, which is important, since Nola has always been a workhorse during his career. If he can get back to the pitcher he was before last season, that will be huge.
Jesus Luzardo just had his best season in 2025 after being traded to the Phillies. He set career highs in games started (32), innings pitched (183.2) and strikeouts (216). His 10.6 K/9 was fourth best in MLB. The Phillies also rewarded Luzardo with a new long-term contract. Now they just have to hope he can repeat what he did last season. Luzardo has never had back-to-back 20 start seasons in his 7-year career, so this season will be important for him and the team.
Taijuan Walker is in the starting rotation until Wheeler is ready. He’s not great, but he’s not terrible either. He was in the swingman roll last season and did OK. He appeared in 34 games including 21 starts and compiled an ERA of 4.08 in 123.2 innings. That’s right around league average. Plenty of teams have far worse pitchers in their starting rotation. Walker is the No. 6 for the Phillies and teams always need more than five SPs during a season.
Painter will finally make his MLB debut this season, after missing nearly two years due to Tommy John surgery. He was pretty bad last season in AAA, but many pitchers returning from TJS struggle right away. They say control is the last thing to return and that was the case with Painter. Still, Painter was once the No.1 prospect in all of baseball for a reason and he’s looked decent this spring. He’ll most definitely be on an innings limit, so don’t expect him to pitch much more than 5 innings a start. But there is a reason Painter was untouchable in trades the last few years. Now it’s time for him to prove he was worth holding onto.
One last thing about the Phillies starters. Since 2023, the Phillies rotation ranks first in innings pitched (2,371.2), third in ERA (3.88) and fourth in WHIP (1.21). Last year they were first in innings pitched (929.2), second in ERA (3.53) and fifth in WHIP (1.18). And that was with Nola being injured and terrible and Wheeler needing surgery. This team believes in letting their SPs go longer than other teams, who are slaves to analytics. In 2025, the Phillies were one of only five teams to have had multiple pitchers (2) throw at least 180 innings. In 2024, they were one of only two teams to have at least three starters throw at least 180 innings (when Wheeler and Nola were healthy).
The Phillies were much smarter about building their bullpen this offseason. Instead of gambling that someone like Jordan Romano would rebound from a bad season (he didn’t), they brought in Brad Keller, who had a 2.07 ERA in 69.2 innings last year with the Cubs. Keller will be the primary setup man in the bullpen, after allowing one earned run after the All-Star break last season. Yes. One.
Keller will be setting up for the closer the Phillies traded for at least season’s trade deadline, Jhoan Duran.
Duran represents another departure for the Phillies. They haven’t had a set closer in recent seasons, and it has hurt them. They have one of the best closers in the game now. Duran throws 100+ MPH fastballs and supplements that with a splitter, sweeper and curveball. He had 32 saves last season and that was when he pitched half the season for a terrible Twins team. His mere presence improves the bullpen because this season the other relief pitchers will know their roles.
Jose Alvarado needs to stay off the juice, so he doesn’t get suspended again. As the main lefty in the bullpen, the Phillies are really counting on him to produce. He’s looked good this spring, so keep your fingers crossed.
The other two LHP in the Phillies bullpen will be Tanner Banks and Kyle Bachus. Banks was a revelation last season after Alvarado got suspended. He limited lefties to a .465 OPS last season, and the Phillies need him to repeat that performance. He isn’t great against righties, but he doesn’t need to be.
Orion Kerkering and Jonathan Bowlan will be the other righties. The Phillies got Bowlan from the Royals in exchange for Matt Strahm, who had apparently worn out his welcome with the organization. Kerkering needs to just wipe last season from his memory. Even before his brain fart against the Dodgers in the NLDS, Kerkering didn’t have a great season. He struck out less batters and walked more in 2025. Other than that, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Kerkering also had a minor injury in spring training and might not be ready for the start of the season. They need him to get back to being healthy and back to being the pitcher he was in 2024.
They’ll use plenty of other relievers from the minors during the season. You just need guys like Seth Johnson, Max Lazar, Zach Pop, Chase Shugart, Tim Mayza, Genesis Cabrera and others to not be bad when they get called up as injury replacements.
The Phillies bullpen should be much better in 2026 than it was last season.
The last thing we need to consider is the Phillies competition in the NL East. Can they win the division again? Maybe. Honestly, three of the four best teams in the NL might just be in this division.
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals aren’t even trying to win in 2026, so let’s just ignore them. Their fans will too.
The hated NY Mets had a surprising amount of roster turnover this offseason, but figure to challenge for the division crown in 2026. They still have All-Stars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, although Lindor is recovering from hamate bone surgery on his wrist. The big news (as Phillies fans well know) was that the Mets signed Bo Bichette as a free agent. Jorge Polanco will play 1B/DH, Marcus Semien is the new 2B and Luis Robert is now in CF. Out of that new group, does anyone really feel like any of those players is an offensive threat, other than Bichette?
The downfall of the 2025 Mets was their pitching, so they traded for Milwaukee ace, Freddy Peralta. That will help, but the rest of their rotation is full of question marks. Closer Edwin Diaz left for LA, so the Mets replaced him with Devin Williams, who hasn’t been great lately.
The Mets are definitely different in 2026, but are they better? We won’t know until they play the games, but I don’t think they’re better than the Phillies.
The Atlanta Braves were decimated by injuries to star players in 2025 and they’ve already had a couple of pitchers undergo surgery this spring. Not a good sign for them. They are led by perennial MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr., and they have the best catcher nobody has heard of in Drake Baldwin. What they need is for guys like Matt Olsen, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies to regain their previous form if they want to challenge for the division crown this season. Jurickson Profar’s PED suspension certainly doesn’t help.
As previously mentioned, the Braves already had two pitchers, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep go under the knife this spring. Add that to the fact that Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder surgery) and Grant Holmes (partially torn UCL) are both coming back from injuries too and the Atlanta rotation is one big question mark after ace Chris Sale.
The Braves should be better in 2026 than they were last season, but I don’t see them beating out the Phillies for the division.
In spite of what some Phillies fans might think about the Phillies offseason moves, I think they improved the team. They added some youth in Crawford and Painter. They kept all of their important free agents (Schwarber and Realmuto), and they vastly improved their bullpen (Duran and Keller).
Sure, the Mets and Braves are going to be better in 2026 than they were in 2025, but the Phillies were already better than both of those teams.
I predict that the Phillies will win the NL East and end up in the NLCS against the LA Dodgers. Yes, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball, but the Phillies actually had their number in recent years before last year’s NLDS. And you can’t tell me that series wouldn’t have been different if they had Wheeler pitching Game 1.
Anybody who has ever read my stuff knows that I am not one of those delusional Stepford fans who thinks his teams are going to win the championship every year. But I really think this Phillies team has what it takes to win the franchise’s first World Series Championship since 2008. Now we just need to figure out if they let Chase Utley get behind the microphone as a quest speaker at the parade.
World Champions! World F……….
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