Damn you, Phillies. You made me actually believe you could win this year. Instead, it was another early playoff exit. If I wasn’t old and already conditioned to accept soul-crushing amounts of losing from all the Philly sports teams, this would really hurt. OK, it still hurts, but I’m all but numb to it now.
The Phillies are actually only the 9th team in MLB history to make the playoffs 5 years in a row and have the second longest active playoff streak behind only the Dodgers. But that really doesn’t matter much since they have zero World Series Championships to show for all of those recent playoff appearances. And they haven’t even won a playoff series in three years.
This year’s failure was especially hard to take since the team basically imploded. When it took them until the 162nd game to clinch the final playoff spot in the NL, they had to start Zack Wheeler. That meant he couldn’t start Game 1 of the Wild Card series against Atlanta. That, in turn, left them scrambling for pitching. Jesus Luzardo pitched well for someone who missed the last few weeks of the regular season, but with the Phillies getting to Atlanta ace Chris Sale for 3 runs in Game 1, I can’t help but think Wheeler would have won that game for the Phillies. As it was, manager Don Mattingly made some questionable pitching decisions that cost the Phillies the game and ultimately the series.
Can someone tell me why baseball managers decide to completely ignore what worked for 162 games and go into full blown panic mode when it comes to managing their pitching staffs in the playoffs? Mattingly going to Jhoan Duran in the 7th inning of Game 1 was just plain stupid and it backfired in spectacular fashion when Duran lost the game on an Austin Riley HR. Then Mattingly choses to start Aaron Nola over Wheeler in Game 3 because, well, I have no idea why. That was also stupid. I’ll take Wheeler on short rest over 90% of the pitchers in baseball. Side note: If Mattingly had to start Nola, then he also should have started Garrett Stubbs over JT Realmuto at catcher. If you think that’s crazy, allow me to point out that Nola had a 2.82 ERA with Stubbs catching him and a 5.12 ERA with Realmuto catching him this season. Realmuto hit .205 this season and went 0-3 in Game 3. And Nola struggled with his command and gave up 3 runs in 1 2/3 innings in Game 3. Again. Stupid. Bring on Alex Cora.
Seriously, I place the majority of the blame for the Phillies losing this Wild Card series on Mattingly’s mismanagement of the pitching staff. Yes, his bullpen was unreliable outside of Duran and rookie Alex McFarlane, but he still made far too many head-scratching decisions that didn’t pan out. And I actually thought Mattingly would be better than ex-manager Rob Thomson. Nope.
Now I know that the majority of people are blaming President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski for this failed season, but I don’t think he’s done a bad job.
He traded for Duran and Harrison Bader last season and Derrek Hill, Luis Arraez and Jonathan Bowlan this season. Those were all great trades that made meaningful improvements to the roster. He also signed Brad Keller for the bullpen. It’s not his fault that Keller got hurt. The problem is that Dombrowski also gave out some of the worst contracts in the history of sports. The good news is that Nick Castellanos and Tijuan Walker’s horrible contracts (totaling $38 million) expire at the end of this season. The bad news is that Trea Turner’s 11-year $300 million contract runs through 2033. The hope here is that if MLB forces the players to accept a salary cap, there is an amnesty provision like the NBA had when they first instituted a salary cap. In essence, each team would be able to wipe one contract off their books (but still have to pay the player to go away). Bye-bye Trea.
Or if they have to keep Turner, they need to hand him an outfielder’s glove for next season. He’s an absolute butcher at SS and the Phillies have to pray that top prospect Aiden Miller is past his back issues and he can man SS for the big-league club next season.
Dombrowski isn’t going anywhere since team owner John Middleton loves him. I’m fine with that since Dombrowski has won a couple of rings, so he knows how to build a championship roster. Now he needs to do it in Philly.
His biggest decision this offseason is what to do about free agents Alec Bohm and Arraez. I personally like Bohm since he makes contact and drives in at least 80 runs every single year. After a horrible start to the season, Bohm was easily the best hitter on the team in the second half. The problem is that Bryce Harper needs (wants?) to go back to 1B. So that means that if Bohm is resigned to play 3B, they can’t resign Arraez to play 2B and have Bryson Stott go back to 3B. Honestly, I’d sign Arraez over Bohm, but I have to assume somebody like the Yankees are going to target Arraez in free agency. You can get Bohm for cheap. And yes, I know that would drive Phillies fans insane.
RF has been a black hole for a few years, but no team has All-Stars at every position. I love Hill, but he’s not an everyday player. Same with Edmundo Sosa, who is actually a free agent. Gabriel Rincones Jr in the minors has some promise, but he hits left-handed. Maybe they trade Brandon Marsh for a bullpen arm to make room for Rincones. I’m done with Marsh.
Realmuto, Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Turner all have big contracts so they aren’t going anywhere, although I would consider moving Harper in the right deal. The problem is that Middleton won’t allow Dombrowski to trade Harper. He wants Harper to stay and sell tickets and merchandise.
I know if the Phillies don’t make massive changes to the roster the fanbase and pundits will eviscerate Dombrowski, but that plan didn’t work out so well for the New York Mets last offseason, did it? They changed half the roster and were one of the worst teams in all of baseball with the highest payroll. Change for the sake of change isn’t smart.
Plus, the Phillies have a dominant starting pitching staff that guarantees they are contenders no matter what. Wheeler is getting older, but he was a Top 10 pitcher this season. Christopher Sanchez and Luzardo are going to finish in the top10 in NL Cy Young voting and while Nola is no longer a particular good pitcher, he isn’t as bad as he looked early this season. The wild card is Andrew Painter.
Painter was once the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. He was supposed to be the next ace of the staff. Then he missed two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and he was so bad this season that he got sent to the minors. Then, in a turnaround not seen since Roy Halladay came back from the minors and authored a Hall of Fame career, Painter came back to the majors a different pitcher. And that dominant 3-inning relief performance in Game 2 of the Wild Card series is a great sign for the future. I still believe Painter is a future ace. Glad they didn’t trade him like all the clowns on sports talk radio wanted.
The bad news is that outside of Duran, McFarlane and maybe Bowlan, the bullpen will need to be reconstructed, again. Maybe Orion Kerkering can have the same mental reset that Painter achieved in the minors, but I have my doubts he ever gets out of his own head. Jose Alvarado? No thanks, unless MLB lets him use steroids again. The rest of the bullpen are just a bunch of guys. Of course, that’s every bullpen in baseball really. Dombrowski needs to finally get this fixed.
The question is, can he?
I think so, since he’s done it before.
The elephant in the room is what happens with the negotiations between MLB and the players union for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). There will most likely be a salary cap implemented, with an accompanying salary floor that will force teams to spend over a certain amount on payroll. Once that is settled, we’ll be able to figure out exactly what teams with payrolls already over the proposed salary cap will be able to do, but that’s a discussion for another day.
For now, I’m just mad at the Phillies for coming up short, yet again. And making me look dumb for thinking they could win the World Series. Do better Phillies. Damn you.
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